Game 13: Rockies (Francis) vs. Giants (Zito)
vs.
Well, tonight we get to see the Rockies take on the most overpaid pitcher in baseball, Barry Zito. "Overpaid" is a bit unfair, since Zito’s a pretty good pitcher and if I were offered $126 million over seven years with the opportunity to live in San Francisco thrown in, I’d take it right away and worry about the "pitching" part later. Of course, Zito has looked like anything but a $126 million pitcher so far this season. In fact, he’s looked much more like the kind of guy you can find on the waiver wire or in AAA when you need somebody, anybody, to go out there and throw five innings when your starter tells you two hours before the game that he ate one too many pork sandwiches the previous night and can’t pitch (mmmm… pork…) Surely, 0-2 with a 8.18 ERA is not what the Giants are paying for.
There are positives, like the fact that Zito’s only given up one homer this season. Playing at Annual Name Change Park really helps in that regard. What doesn’t help is having an old, decrepit defense, particularly in left field. For a lefty who doesn’t give up a particularly high number of ground balls, having the other Barry in left isn’t helping matters. There’s also the matter that he doesn’t strike out as many batters as he did earlier in his career, but other than that he’s mostly the same pitcher he was in 2002. He’s the kind of guy who you can generally count on for 15 wins and an ERA under 4, which I guess is more than you can say for most pitchers. But still, Barry’s always going to be the kind of guy who relies on his defense, and when the youngest player on that defense is usually over 30, that’s not a good recipe for success.
What’s especially eerie are the comparisons you can make between Zito and another famously overpaid pitcher that Rockies fans are familiar with, Mike Hampton (currently being paid millions of dollars not to pitch for the Rockies, or the Braves for that matter.) Both had similar strikeout and walk rates the year before signing their deals — 6.15/4.03 for Barry, 6.24/4.09 for Mike. Both had fluky good seasons relatively early in their career. Barry had that Cy Young season back in 2002, Hampton went 22-4 with a 2.90 ERA in 1999. Also, Hampton pitched most of his career prior to signing with Colorado in pitcher-friendly parks, first the Astrodome and then Shea Stadium. The difference, of course, was that Hampton signed on to play in pre-humidor Coors Field, a pitchers’ graveyard if there ever was one, while Zito’s playing in one of the best pitchers’ parks in the majors. But we’ll see what happens with that.
That’s what happens tonight, anyway, as Zito makes a start at Coors Field and the two paths collide. Zito has one career start at Coors in his career, and that was last season, when he pitched seven innings of one-run ball and got a no decision. Of course, the "one run" came despite the Rockies getting eight hits and four walks that night, a pattern familiar to many Rockies fans. Zito may not be so lucky tonight, but then again, the Rockies’ offense has exhibited a similar pattern this season, so he very well may. And in his career, Zito’s 11-17 with a 5.20 ERA in April.
Opposing him tonight will be Jeff Francis, a similar finesse lefty, albeit one who’s not being paid nearly as much money. Francis is off to a pretty good start to the season, but you kind of have to wonder if he’s really as good as his 2006 numbers made him look. After all, his BABIP dropped from .339 to .270 while his strikeouts also dropped. He did do a better job of keeping the ball in the park, though. Or the humidor did a good job of that for him, I’m not sure.
Little respect for the Rockies from SI, which tends to happen when you’re 5-7 through two weeks of the season and your name isn’t the Yankees. The good news is that all of the games the Rockies have played so far have been against teams ranked fourth, fifth, and sixth in those rankings, and nine of the twelve games so far have been on the road. The bad news, of course, is that those are going to be teams they’ll play all year. Ah, but the Giants check in at #28, four spots below the Rockies. I’m hoping for a win tonight. No, check that. I’m expecting a win.
The Coors Effect 