Draft Day Preview
The MLB draft is coming at a great time for Rockies fans, with the Rockies now under .500, in last place, and mired in a losing streak. The Rockies have the number two pick in the draft, and are reportedly looking at, among others, North Carolina LHP Andrew Miller, Houston RHP Brad Lincoln, and Long Beach State IF Evan Longoria. My best guess is that the Rockies will draft a pitcher, primarily because there aren’t many hitters available worth drafting at number two. Longoria may be the only one, in fact.
The draft, according to most draft experts, seems to be unusually weak this season, especially at the top. The draft is never a sure thing, but there seem to be more questions than ever about the players expected to be taken at the top of the draft. So the Rockies could surprise me and pick a high school guy with their pick, but my best guess right now is that they’ll take Lincoln (unless the Royals pass on Miller, which they just might do.) Of course, if I knew which of these guys would turn out to be the best MLB player five years from now, well, I’d be in the Rockies’ draft room and not sitting at a computer typing a blog entry.
The first pick is only half the battle, though. Much of what makes a draft good or bad depends on who you take with your later picks and how they turn out. Here’s a rundown of what the Rockies have done in the draft over the past few years.
2000
First-round pick Matt Harrington never signed with the Rockies, and the Rockies’ picks in rounds 2 through 4 (Jason Young, Chris Buglovsky, Cory Vance) never panned out. But the team did get Garrett Atkins (5), Scott Dohmann (6), Clint Barmes (10) and Brad Hawpe (11) out of the draft. Dan Conway (8), Zack Parker (21), Darren Clarke (35), Jentry Beckstead (38) and Michael Davies (39) are still hanging around the organization, though only Clarke seems to have the potential to make the bigs. The Rockies also took an outfielder named Michael Vick in round 30, though he evidently decided football was a better idea. Grade: B.
2001
So far, Cory Sullivan, taken in round 7, is the only player from the 2001 draft to make the majors. Top pick Jayson Nix looks like a bust, but I could be wrong. Tony Miller (10) could still make an impact. James Sweeney (9) and Jud Songster (17) are still around. Grade: C-.
2002
First-round pick Jeff Francis looks like the real deal. The Rockies failed to sign second-round pick Micah Owings, and fourth-round pick Jeff Baker could be decent, but right now he has nowhere to play. Ryan Spilborghs (7) and Ryan Shealy (11) were nice finds. High school guy Neil Wilson (5) still has time. Time is running out for college guys Sean Barker (6), Jeff Salazar (8), Mike Esposito (12), and Duke Sardinha (19). Grade: B-.
2003
There’s Ian Stewart. And then… not a lot after that. Picks two through eleven look pretty average, though in this case there’s still a chance I could be wrong. Third-round pick Aaron Marsden was released this offseason. Joe Gaetti (12), Ryan Mattheus (19), and Jason Van Kooten (46) probably have the best chance of panning out, but the 2003 draft looks weak right now outside of Stewart. Of course, Stewart does lift it up quite a bit. Grade: C.
2004
Even with the struggles of top two picks Chris Nelson and Seth Smith, this draft looks good so far. Chris Iannetta (4) looks like the Rockies’ catcher of the future, Joe Koshansky (6) has legit power, Jim Miller (8) could have a future in relief, and Matt Miller (13) has a nice bat. Josh Newman (19) could be a good lefty reliever. Draft-and-follow Xavier Cedeno (31) also looks good. The best snag, though, could be 14th-round pick Dexter Fowler, who is a five-tool talent. Grade: A-.
2005
Troy Tulowitzki and Chaz Roe look good so far, and Zach Simons does as well other than the troublingly low strikeout rate. Corey Wimberly is a good speedster. But it’s too early to make a judgment on the 2005 draft.
Of course, the draft is only part of it. Many top prospects — Ubaldo Jimenez, Juan Morillo, Shane Lindsay, Franklin Morales — are signed from other countries rather than being drafted. (Only players from the U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico are eligible for the MLB draft.) So today’s draft is just a small part of building the Rockies organization. A good draft today, though, will greatly help the Rockies in the long run.
The Coors Effect 
Tony Miller was cut or traded or something a few weeks ago.
The Rockies have so many Millers, that I get them messed up too. Seth Miller, Matt Miller, Jim Miller.. Andrew Miller… oops, the Rockies passed on himin the draft today for some goofy reason.